Forecast models for hurricane
Wind speed is estimated on the basis of a minute average. Atmospheric pressure in the center of a hurricane is an approximation. The strength of exemplary hurricanes is given to the landfall point.
Hurricanes, which originate from the Hindu god of winds Hurakana, depending on the place of occurrence, are called cyclones or typhoon. They are in the tropics, especially in the north-east of the Pacific and in the western part of the Atlantic Ocean, as well as in the Caribbean. The heated oceanic water evaporates and then floats upwards, where it is instantly cooled. The temperature difference and condensed water vapor creates dense clouds and large amounts of energy that drives the development of hurricanes. The power released by a strong hurricane is compared to that used by Hong Kong residents within 20 years. Hurricanes – in accordance with the Coriolis force – rotate in the clockwise direction in the southern hemisphere, while in the northern hemisphere they vortex inversely. The strength of a hurricane is measured on the Beaufort or Saffir-Simpson scale. Tropical gale usually lasts for a few days, but sometimes they ravage the territory for up to a week.
Long range hurricane forecast models
The most important system for ensuring the safety of people living in the area of hurricane danger is the early warning system. Today, thanks to computers, excellent communications and satellites, the problem of hurricanes seems to be solved. No stronger wind can escape the attention of meteorologists, who analyze the materials sent from space and from research stations ahead of the arrival of hurricanes by at least 24 hours, thus providing time to secure homes and evacuate the threatened area. Unfortunately, the knowledge of the arrival of a hurricane does not completely avoid the material damage caused by it.
The wind speed around the eye of the cyclone in the strongest hurricanes can exceed 300 km / h. Such a strong wind wrenches trees, turns over energy poles, breaks roofs, and even destroys buildings with a weaker structure. The strongest winds usually blow in half of the cyclones more distant from the equator, because to the velocity associated with cyclone circulation, the speed of moving the system itself is added. In the part of the proximal cyclone, the velocities are subtracted and the wind force is reduced.
The Americans introduced the scale of the intensity of hurricanes, so-called Saffir-Simpson scale. A similar scale was introduced by Australian weather services. Scale was developed in 1969 by engineer Herbert Saffir and director of National Hurricane Center Bob Simpson to classify hurricanes according to the intensity of continuous winds. It is used to estimate the potential damage that occurred when the hurricane entered the land. It is used only in the case of storms arising in the Atlantic Ocean and North Pacific east of the international date change line. For other storms, different assessment methods are used.
Hurricanes and their consequences and climate change
How the number and strength of cyclones in the warmer climate will change is the subject of intense research. For now, we do not have sufficient data to conclude that a given hurricane (for example, Harvey or Irma) is related to global warming; however, it can be concluded that as a result of climate change, the consequences of hurricanes will become more and more serious.
On the one hand, the increase in water temperature and the increase of humidity favor their formation, but on the other hand, in the warmer climate, the air movements in the tropics indispensable for the initiation of the cyclone, the wind speed varies with altitude, which disorganizes the circulation. The calculations indicate that although the total number of cyclones is not likely to increase (and maybe even decrease), it is likely that the systems that will be created will be stronger so the number of those from the highest categories 4 and 5, i.e. wind speeds over 200 km / h.
The warming of the climate is conducive to the increase in the strength of cyclones, primarily because hotter and warmer water – not only at the surface, but also at a depth of 100 meters or more – gives it more energy to supply it.